Title : Are EIA Drilling Productivity Reports Misleading The Market? BTU Analytics -- July 26, 2017
link : Are EIA Drilling Productivity Reports Misleading The Market? BTU Analytics -- July 26, 2017
Are EIA Drilling Productivity Reports Misleading The Market? BTU Analytics -- July 26, 2017
Wow, talk about a great article, from BRU Analytics, sent to me by a reader: are EIA drilling productivity reports are misleading the market?BTU Analytics would contend that those hoping that Permian productivity has hit a peak and thus US oil production forecasts are overblown are deceiving themselves.
There are several potential flaws with modeling rig productivity utilizing [EIA's] approach. The first flaw is that it assumes all new production in period 2 originated from rigs active just two months prior. It’s no secret at this point that the industry has a tremendous ability to add rigs quickly to a region, but completion crews often fail to keep pace with producers in the basin. From 2009-2015, operators in the Marcellus and Utica outstripped the ability of infrastructure and completion crews to keep pace with drilling activity, leading to a peak of nearly 1,600 wells in excess backlog, and oil plays have been no different. The price crash in 2015 led operators to defer completions across all of the major oil producing areas, leading to an excess backlog that peaked in 2016 at over 2,000 wells in the Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken, and Niobrara.Archived: it's a great article.
This is one of the reasons I am not a fanatic about posting EIA drilling productivity reports. I post them periodically, but less and less it seems.
Thus Article Are EIA Drilling Productivity Reports Misleading The Market? BTU Analytics -- July 26, 2017
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