Title : Poll: Will US Crude Oil In Storage Increase Or Decrease In This Week's Report? -- August 28, 2017
link : Poll: Will US Crude Oil In Storage Increase Or Decrease In This Week's Report? -- August 28, 2017
Poll: Will US Crude Oil In Storage Increase Or Decrease In This Week's Report? -- August 28, 2017
A huge thanks to a reader for suggesting this poll. It's the best kind of poll out there: in only two or three days we will have an "official" answer to a very interesting question.This will be fun; this will be quick. We will know the results by close of business Wednesday, August 30, 2017.
Every week, generally by 10:30 a.m. ET, the EIA provides the weekly petroleum data which includes the US crude oil "drawdown" -- how many bbls of crude oil the US has in storage (not including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve).
I've been following this story for 17 weeks and have calculated the average drawdown after each week's data has been reported, and then using "historical norm," have calculated the number of weeks it will be before US crude oil supplies in storage are "re-balanced."
The most recent data, for example, was posted August 23, 2017:
|
Week
|
Date
|
Drawdown
|
Storage
|
Weeks to RB
|
|
Week 0
|
Apr 26, 2017
|
|
529.0
|
180
|
|
Week 1
|
May 3, 2017
|
0.9
|
528.0
|
198
|
|
Week 2
|
May 10, 2017
|
6
|
522.0
|
50
|
|
Week 3
|
May 17, 2017
|
1.8
|
520.2
|
59
|
|
Week 4
|
May 24, 2017
|
4.4
|
515.8
|
51
|
|
Week 5
|
May 31, 2017
|
6.4
|
509.9
|
41
|
|
Week 6
|
June 7, 2017
|
-3.3
|
513.2
|
60
|
|
Week 7
|
June 14, 2017
|
1.7
|
511.5
|
57
|
|
Week 8
|
June 21, 2017
|
2.5
|
509.0
|
62
|
|
Week 9
|
June 28, 2017
|
-0.2
|
509.2
|
71
|
|
Week 10
|
July 6, 2017
|
6.3
|
502.9
|
58
|
|
Week 11
|
July 12, 2017
|
7.6
|
495.3
|
47
|
|
Week 12
|
July 19, 2017
|
4.7
|
490.6
|
43
|
|
Week 13
|
July 26, 2017
|
7.2
|
483.4
|
38
|
|
Week 14
|
August 2, 2017
|
1.5
|
481.9
|
34
|
|
Week 15
|
August 9, 2017
|
6.5
|
475.4
|
35
|
|
Week 16
|
August 16, 2017
|
8.9
|
466.5
|
30
|
|
Week 17
|
August 23, 2017
|
3.3
|
463.2
|
29
|
So, what do you think? A poll is at the sidebar at the right in which we ask whether you think there will be a net drawdown when the data is posted this week. Anything less than a report of 463.2 million bbls of crude oil in US storage (not including the SPR) will be considered a drawdown.
This is going to be a tricky week. Under the best of circumstances it would have been difficult to predict (for the first two reasons noted below). But now there are so many variables:
- the total solar eclipse resulted in the largest one-day travel migration in US history
- this was the last week of summer vacation and summer driving for many families with school-age children
- Hurricane Harvey (HH): crude oil cargo ships stranded off shore
- HH: crude oil exports out of Texas come to standstill
- HH: off-shore oil platforms shut down in anticipation
- HH: Eagle Ford oil fields shut in
- HH: Bakken oil destined for the gulf coast impacted?
- HH: pipelines from the Permian and the Eagle Ford pretty much shut down for duration
- HH: refineries in Gulf area shut down for duration -- taking less oil out of storage
- HH: petroleum demand comes to virtual standstill for several days in 4th largest city in the US
Thus Article Poll: Will US Crude Oil In Storage Increase Or Decrease In This Week's Report? -- August 28, 2017
That's an article Poll: Will US Crude Oil In Storage Increase Or Decrease In This Week's Report? -- August 28, 2017 This time, hopefully can give benefits to all of you. well, see you in posting other articles.
You are now reading the article Poll: Will US Crude Oil In Storage Increase Or Decrease In This Week's Report? -- August 28, 2017 with the link address https://mylivemyidea.blogspot.com/2017/08/poll-will-us-crude-oil-in-storage.html
0 Response to "Poll: Will US Crude Oil In Storage Increase Or Decrease In This Week's Report? -- August 28, 2017"
Post a Comment