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Title : The Political Page, T+217 -- August 25, 2017
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The Political Page, T+217 -- August 25, 2017

EVs: Rigzone contributor: greater EV adoption relies on some big "ifs."

Electric vehicles (EV) constitute a very small share of all cars on the road worldwide. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the total number of EVs hit 2 million in 2016. Compare that to the nearly 1.3 billion figure of all vehicles worldwide, according to 2015 figures from the International Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, and it's clear that EVs do not currently represent a personal transport juggernaut.

EV penetration in the global vehicle fleet could be considerably greater less than 20 years from now, however. A recent study by Wood Mackenzie and GTM Research predicts that more than one in five vehicles worldwide – or more than 350 million units – could be powered by electricity rather than the internal combustion engine. The study's authors foresee such a sharp EV growth trajectory under what they call a "carbon-constrained scenario."

These are the "big ifs":

Achieving a point where EVs make up more than 20 percent of the world's vehicle fleet would represent a significant milestone, but McConnell cautions that EV uptake faces some formidable obstacles. When asked what the biggest "ifs" are for EVs to become more widely accepted, he ticked off the following list:

• battery prices will need to fall fast enough so that sticker prices reach parity with internal combustion engine-powered vehicles
• charging infrastructure will need to be rolled out so that drivers can charge their EVs when and where they want
• the battery supply chain must "ramp up enormously," and it needs to incorporate battery recycling 

The top-3 list did not include "better batteries" -- longer life, longer range. Not much progress has been made in either area. In fact, the biggest names in the business (Sony, Toyota, Apple, GM) have been working on the "battery problem" for the past twenty years (or longer) and any number of small start-ups in the past ten years have failed or gone bankrupt trying to solve the "battery problem."

This tells me that it is unlikely there will be some major battery breakthrough in my investing lifetime. In fact, hydrogen and fuel cell technology may be the big surprise.

Debt limit: from a CNBC talking head this morning -- the likelihood of a government shut down over "the wall" and raising the debt limit and forcing a government shutdown:

• Trump does not care about the "GOP brand, and will play to his base (35% of the US population)
• the DEMS will play to their base -- they won't fund the wall
• the mainstream congressional GOP -- which the talking head called the "third party" -- will be "left in the lurch" or holding the short straw

All politics is local. A government shut-down is almost assured. The vitriol between T and M almost guarantees it. R seems the most "diplomatic."

• T: Trump
• M: Ms Cho's husband
• R: Ryan

http://ift.tt/2dZyQXu

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