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Title : COP's EPS Double What Analysts Forecast; At $50 Oil; More Talk Of Natural Gas Pipeline Constraints -- October 26, 2017
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COP's EPS Double What Analysts Forecast; At $50 Oil; More Talk Of Natural Gas Pipeline Constraints -- October 26, 2017

COP: 3Q17 EPS of 16 cents beats by 8 cents. Or another way to put it, earnings per share double  what analysts forecast. Double. More at SeekinagAlpha.

Active rigs:

	10/26/2017	10/26/2016	10/26/2015	10/26/2014	10/26/2013
Active Rigs	54	36	68	194	182

RBN Energy: is the US gas market headed for more oversupply, pipeline constraints? At least for me, what the headline implies is absolutely staggering for me. Absolutely staggering.

Midstreamers in recent years have been in overdrive to de-bottleneck the Marcellus/Utica natural gas supply region as well as other growing gas supply basins and connect producers to where the demand is increasing. Significant transportation capacity has been added in recent years and much more is on the way.

Constraints are starting to ease and producers are finding relief. But with production growing again, there are signs of potential new bottlenecks on the horizon. The RBN Growth Scenario estimates that Lower-48 gas production could increase to 92 Bcf/d by 2022. Demand is expected to grow too — primarily from exports — but no more (and potentially less) than supply in the same timeframe, leaving the market in a precarious equilibrium over the next five years.

Thus, it will be all the more critical that incremental supply can access what new demand there will be. At the same time, demand growth will be concentrated in one geographic region — in the Gulf Coast states. In today’s blog, we explore the potential risks of overproduction as producers crank up drilling activity.

As we covered in Part 1, after slumping in 2016, both U.S. crude oil and Lower-48 natural gas production are climbing again. At the current price level near $50/bbl — our Cutback Scenario — the RBN Production Economics and Production Forecasting Models indicate that crude production would grow to 10 MMb/d by 2022. If prices climb to $57/bbl — RBN’s Growth Scenario — production would increase to 11.2 MMb/d by 2022. But if prices increase to $65/bbl — as in our Advance Scenario — crude production could rise to 12.5 MMb/d in five years’ time. Invariably, the incremental crude production will bring with it associated natural gas production.

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