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Title : Tesla Watch - Month 2 Of The Ramp Up -- October 28, 2017
link : Tesla Watch - Month 2 Of The Ramp Up -- October 28, 2017

Tesla Watch - Month 2 Of The Ramp Up -- October 28, 2017

Ramp up, Model 3, company forecast and numbers:

• first month, September, 2017 -- 260 vehicles delivered; goal - 1,500 vehicles
• second month, October, 2017 -- pending; goal, somewhere between 1,500 and 20,000 vehicles

Current non-company forecasts for October, 2017:

• contributor to SeekingAlpha: <100 a="" cars="" far="" in="" month="" october="" so="" this=""></100>
• MarketWatch: 1,000 units toward the end of November, pushing the S-curve out 6 - 8 weeks
• Market Watch (same link): bleaker scenario if Tesla unable to meet 1,000-unit-a-week threshold until January, 2018; and, not getting to a higher rate by late April
• my hunch: the Tesla cult will be happy if 500 units were delivered in October, 2017 (we'll know next week) and the tea leaves suggest the S-curve is simply pushed a bit to the right, regardless of whether Musk Melon says that (everyone has gotten used to his delays)

For investors:

• old money: I am reminded of Jim Cramer's oft-quoted adage: bulls make money; bears make money; hogs get slaughtered
• new money: a lot (I wouldn't say "everything" but a "lot") depends on numbers that will be reported this week

Comments:

• this may be the huge clue that Tesla is slowing down the production line: from The Street: Tesla has cut December orders from one of its Model 3 parts suppliers in Taiwan to 3,000 per week from 5,000 per week. The supplier says that the 40% reduction is due to a production bottleneck for the vehicle. 
• two things from that clue:
• • if the cut is for December orders, this means that if there is a hiccup in production it extends well into the next year (2018)
  • the reason for the delay in cutting orders may have to do with the contract; it is likely the supplier requires a two-month notice for any request to slow down the supply chain

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