Title : Recession: A Near Certainty By 2020 -- Morgan Stanley -- November 28, 2017 -- The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+311
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Recession: A Near Certainty By 2020 -- Morgan Stanley -- November 28, 2017 -- The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+311
Raining on Trump's parade: the short-term, long-term Treasury curves are flattening. This is what it means to some people:A flattening yield curve spells trouble for banks, which generate money from the gap between long-term loans and short term deposits. So it’s no surprise that financial stocks have trailed the S&P 500 this year.
Finally, an inverted yield curve has predicted the past 7 recessions. Flattening isn’t the same thing as inverting, but it is one step closer. Morgan Stanley notes that “we are not on recession watch now, and peg the 12-month probability of recession at 25% … [but] by 2020, that probability grows to near certainty.”Something for Jay Powell to manage.
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