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Title : TDS: Tesla Derangement Syndrome -- November 22, 2017
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TDS: Tesla Derangement Syndrome -- November 22, 2017

As mentioned earlier, I suffer from TDS - Tesla Derangement Syndrome. I am simply fascinated by the company. 

From Investopedia, July 31, 2017, from an investor "long" on TSLA:

How did estimates compare to actual results? Actual results were posted at this link. It seems there are a number of different "numbers" provided for actual earning results: GAAP: non-GAAP: fantasy; the company numbers; and so on.

Ignoring 3Q16, there was only one quarter in which forecast for the quarterly loss beat the actual number. Perhaps worse, in 4Q15, analysts had forecast a small gain, but actual results were the worst up to that point on the graph above.

Burning through $8,000/minute works out to:

• $11.52 million / day
• 345.6 million / month
• $1.04 billion / quarter

Of course their automobiles are only part of their business, but --

• 5,000 cars/month with a $10,000 profit margin on each car = 
• $50 million / month
• $150 million / quarter

If they get to 10,000 cars/month with a $10,000 profit margin on each car =

• $100 million / month
• $300 million / month

Plus $250,000 for the new roadster x 2,000 orders =

• $500 million -- a one-time good deal

So, I was curious. It seems there's a bit of a gap between burning through $8,000/minute and anticipating an income of $300 million + $500 million. The EPS forecast in the graphs above was back in July, 2017.

What is the current EPS forecast for 4Q17 for Tesla. Here's the link; don't hold your breath: a loss of $3.75/share, much worse than the -$1.50 forecast in the graph above.

At that same link, Tesla's yearly earnings are forecast to be a minus $11.38 (for the year). So far,

• 1Q16: -$1.25
• 2Q17: -2.04
• 3Q17: -3.70

• Sub-total: -$6.99

Yearly forecast at the link: -$11.38.

The delta between $11.38 and $6.99 is $4.39 which is slightly different, but in the same ballpark as the estimate of a $3.75 loss for the December, 2017, numbers.

This continues to be a fascinating story to watch.

Disclaimer: the usual disclaimer applies. I often make simple arithmetic errors.

By the way, in this article, November 1, 2017, this comment by the writer, albeit in a link from one of his earlier posts:

With Model 3 anticipation high, Tesla is still selling record numbers of Model S and X. In Tesla’s just-released Q3 2017 earnings report, the company announced that in the same quarter that the much-antipated Model 3 was (soft-)launched, they’ve still managed to produce and deliver record numbers of the Model S and X. This is despite Tesla’s recent focus on “anti-selling” the Model 3, for fear that the upcoming product will negatively affect current S/X sales.

Fact check:

Total number of Model X and Model S sold/delivered in the following months:

• June: 2,200 + 2,350 = 4,550
• July: 1,650 +1,425 = 3,075
• August: 1,575 +2,150 = 3,725
• September: 3,210 +4,860 = 8,070
• October (most recent data): 850 +1,210 = 2,060

Only if one averages September and October sales (5,065) does one get "record number of sales on a monthly basis.

I can only assume October was an anomaly, and that November sales will be "out of this world. "

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