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Title : "If You Can't Beat 'Em, Join 'Em" -- December 20, 2017
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"If You Can't Beat 'Em, Join 'Em" -- December 20, 2017

Saudi Arabia reportedly looking at US shale assets to diversity Aramco. Link here.

Saudi Arabia is reportedly looking at natural-gas assets in Texas shale basins and is in talks with a U.S. liquefied natgas producer as it looks to break into U.S. shale.

Saudi Arabia is reportedly looking at natural-gas assets in Texas shale basins and is in talks with a U.S. liquefied natgas producer as it looks to break into U.S. shale.

State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco is in early negotiations with Tellurian to buy a stake or some of its natural gas. The report also said Armaco has asked about assets in the Permian and Eagle Ford shale formations.

If the company starts production in the U.S., it would be the first time it had any output from outside the kingdom. It also would come after three years of struggles to cool shale's growth, which has upended markets that Saudi Arabia once swayed as the swing producer.

But the kingdom's domestic energy needs may be prompting an embrace of its U.S. rivals. Investing in shale would give Saudi Arabia access to the U.S. industry's ability to quickly start and stop production projects and use that knowledge back at home.

"Saudi Arabia has a lot of shale, a lot of tight gas," said Jim Krane, an energy analyst at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. "Aramco needs to get to the gas because Saudi Arabia is very short on natural gas. The only way to get to it without imports is to tap into shale."

Saudi Aramco won't be the first Middle Eastern country to invest in U.S. shale; the UAE's Mubadala sovereign fund has invested in a private equity firm in U.S. shale, the report said.

Much, much more at the linked article.

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The Road To Germany 

(Re-Posting From October 26, 2017)

One could devote a whole blog to Germany's energy problems. A reader has sent me a number of links to various articles showing how bad things really are (and getting worse) in Germany. I read a fair amount of material on Germany's energy challenges late last night. But this data point jumped out at me, buried in a very technical journal touting the success Germany is having with its renewable energy program (wink, wink):

About 90% of hard coal was imported, in comparison with 98% import dependence for oil and 90% for natural gas.

Imagine if Hillary had been elected, and then served two full terms, and banned fracking as she promised during her campaign, and put a lot of miners out of work, as she also promised -- what would the US look like if US energy needs were those of Germany? What would the US look like if the US imported 98% of its oil, 90% of its natural gas, 90% of its hard coal?

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The Magnitude of the GOP Tax Bill

A "never Trumper" sent me an e-mail:

Still hard for me to wrap my head around the fact that either party can write major legislation in secret with no input from the other party. Yes, I know the democrats do this, too, but it just doesn’t seem right.

My "not-ready-for-prime-time" reply:

You have no idea how many times the GOP asked the Democrats to come on board, in general.

Specifically, they targeted six Democratic senators up for re-election but those Democratic senators refused to come to the meetings. Afraid of Schumer.

One of the targeted individuals was Heidi Heitkamp of ND -- this was a huge bill for all those North Dakota millionaires due to oil and she refused to get involved. I talked about that in my blog. She had an opportunity to get her own chapter in "Profiles in Courage" to do what was good for North Dakota, but she was afraid of Schumer.

Just after that exchange, I happened to hear a five-minute interview with Paul Ryan on the Rush Limbaugh radio show. This is what stood out:

• "never-Trumpers" will listen to Rachel Maddow's "take" on the tax bill but these same "never-Trumpers" won't listen to the originators of the bill (e.g., Paul Ryan) who know it best or read the tax bill for themselves;
• this is a huge bill, much bigger than anyone can imagine -- can you imagine if your tax bill went from 35% to 21% overnight? think about that;
• the average corporate tax rate in the industrialized world is 21.5% which means that some countries have rates lower than 21% -- but the US is now at the average corporate tax rate in the industrialized world; companies will no longer re-locate overseas simply to take advantage of lower tax rates
• the tax cut bill is very much unlike ObamaCare which was a) a huge drag on the economy; b) seen as a "train wreck" by Dems who actually voted for it; c) a huge tax on every American; d) a huge disruptor of the American health sector; and,which was e) taking America down the road to socialism (vis-a-vis Canada, the EU, Russia)
• the tax cut bill is completely different: as far as I can tell, no one will be sending more money to Washington, DC; it opens up ANWR (Alaska) for drilling; it pretty much ends ObamaCare as we know it
• I have no idea why anyone is upset about the corporate tax rate cut; DC has a spending problem, not a revenue problem 
• Congress and senators listened to the public; they got rid of that crazy, crazy FIFO idea
• Paul Ryan has been working on this bill for decades; folks who suggest this was rushed are the same folks who would suggest the Beatles were an overnight sensation; the Beatles worked their asses off from 1957 to 1962 in clubs in Germany and England; their first album was not recorded until 1963
• a bill that has been worked on for decades and is several hundred pages long is going to have a lot in it of which none of us are even aware (by the way, look up the history of the IRA)
• much of it is too technical for any of us to understand but "bean-counters in green visors in the back offices" will spend the next several months figuring it out; 
• the Affordable Care Act quickly became known as ObamaCare; even its #1 apologist knew that it was not affordable; over time ObamaCare was seen as a disparaging term for the healthcare program; so far, the alt-left and "never-Trumpers" have not been able to come up with a disparaging name for this bill (though, over time, they may succeed); "Tax Cut Bill For Millionaires" does not have the snappy soundbite that ObamaCare has; "Trumponomics" -- currently favored by CNBC won't last; Reaganomics  worked; "Trumponomics" won't
• as I noted above, Heidi Heitkamp did North Dakota no favors by not trying to get something in this bill that would have helped her state; anyone can offer amendments; if she thought this bill was going to pass, she should have gotten something for her state (having said that, North Dakota did have a strong US senator and he certainly watched out for our interests; by stepping out from under the Schumer shadow she could have had her own chapter in Profiles in Courage

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One-Two Punch

The first punch: see the short note on Germany's energy needs above.

The second punch: America's 21% corporate tax rate.

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