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Title : The Market And Energy Page, T+355 -- January 11, 201
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The Market And Energy Page, T+355 -- January 11, 201

WTI: surges to 3-year high; now solidly above $64.

Baked in: since about mid-2017 the talking heads and their guests over at CNBC have consistently talked about three things: a) the synchronized global economy; b) the "fact" that share prices were "baked in" before the tax bill was passed (most, including me, did not even think the tax bill would pass); and, c) the 5% (or worse) correction that was "just around the corner."

NAFTA: yesterday, after several days of the Dow setting new records, the Dow dropped ... drum roll ... 17 points (0.07%) ... and Reuters suggested it was due to worries about NAFTA. I guess those worries dissipated overnight. The Dow surges again today, now up 100 points.

NYSE: despite a full year of ever-rising share prices on all major indices, again, today, there are 201 issues reporting 52-week highs, including: Arch Coal; Bank of New York Mellon; Berkshire Hathaway; Boeing; Caterpillar; Chevron; COP; CLR; EOG; 

Same ol', same ol': from Platts --

Lijla Villar, an analyst with the EIA's international energy team, said her agency also predicts a fall in production from Venezuela, along with OPEC's African members, which would temper any output increases from other members.

She added that there was "significant risk" that production could decline more than forecast in Nigeria and Libya, both of whom face constant threats of internal strife.

Libyan production averaged 980,000 b/d in December, according to the Platts OPEC survey. S&P Global Platts Analytics said Libya is unlikely to produce much more than 1 million b/d, "given technical and economic constraints, making production risks significantly greater to the downside."

Nigeria, meanwhile, has faced sporadic disruptions to its oil infrastructure that many analysts say likely will continue in 2018, particularly as a contentious general election approaches in February 2019.

"Niger Delta militias will align with rival politicians during the 2018 campaign season," Rapidan Energy said. "Attacks will focus mainly on political targets, but occasional disruptions of up to 100,000 b/d are possible."

Iran could be another downside risk, as US President Donald Trump on Friday is expected to decide whether to continue waiving sanctions on Iran's oil sector under the nuclear deal.

Analysts are divided on the prospects of Trump reimposing sanctions, which would likely take some time to implement and could be blunted by a lack of cooperation by European and Asian countries. But as much as 1 million b/d of Iranian crude exports could be impacted if the nuclear deal is scrapped.

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