They Must Be Reading The Blog -- We Talked About This Five Days Ago -- The Huge (Unexpected) US Crude Oil Build -- Zeits -- February 12, 2018

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Title : They Must Be Reading The Blog -- We Talked About This Five Days Ago -- The Huge (Unexpected) US Crude Oil Build -- Zeits -- February 12, 2018
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They Must Be Reading The Blog -- We Talked About This Five Days Ago -- The Huge (Unexpected) US Crude Oil Build -- Zeits -- February 12, 2018

We talked about this five days ago

Link to SeekingAlpha: a big build in petroleum inventories sends a warning signal. From Richard Zeits - the summary --
  • last Wednesday the EIA reported a 1.9 million barrels increase in U.S. commercial crude inventories
  • on the surface, the headline build in crude might appear modest
  • however, the report in its entirety raises some concerns with regard to how tight the market for crude oil and petroleum products currently is. 
"The headline build in crude might appear modest." But this is the problem: the goal has been to decrease the inventory glut. This is going the wrong way. The time to "re-balance" has been extended by another two weeks, and now the tea leaves suggest US crude oil production will increase with WTI solidly above $55.

From the linked article:
The build in crude inventories reported last week must be taken in the context of refiner demand.
Refiner utilization jumped unexpectedly last week. Crude inputs into refineries were 0.8 million barrels higher week-on-week, resulting in a 5.6 million barrels ("MMb") increase in demand for crude, as compared to the previous week.
In the meantime, exports of crude oil and imports of crude oil were in-line with their respective two-month averages.
Even in this context, the build in crude inventories last week does not raise any major red flags. If anything, the data point shows a healthy balance between refiner demand and crude supply.
However, the big combined inventory build in crude and key refined product categories - which added up to 10.7 million barrels last week - is difficult to ignore.
Much, much more at the link including the rest of the story:
  • Commercial crude oil: +1.9 MMb
  • SPR crude oil: +0.5 MMb
  • Gasoline: +3.4 MMb
  • Distillate fueld oil: +3.9 MMb
  • Kerosene/Jet Fuel: +1.0 MMb
This note:
The magnitude of the recalibration is quite remarkable and illustrates the fact that many forecasts for U.S. crude production - including the STEO - were caught behind the curve and now have to undergo significant adjustment. Market perception with regard to U.S. production growth trajectory is in the process of changing.
And then look at the graph:




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