Title : COP Earnings Transcript -- July 27, 2018
link : COP Earnings Transcript -- July 27, 2018
COP Earnings Transcript -- July 27, 2018
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.COP, 2Q18, earnings transcript, at SeekingAlpha:
- cash flow has been running high relative high relative to the sensitivities we provided last November; why?
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- production is higher than we projected and the increases in production are coming mainly from high margin, unconventionals that currently have no cash tax
- interest expense is lower as a result of the accelerated reduction in debt
- reference point
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- at $50 WTI: we generate CFO of $7 billion
- at $65 WTI: $10 billion
- that turned out to be too low
- recalibrated:
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- at $65 WTI: $11.5 to $12 billion depending on differentials
- the market has not yet fully appreciated the cash-generating capability of our assets
- strong benefit of our Brent-linked portfolio
- bottom line: cash from operations exceeded CapEx by $1.2 billion
- cash flow more than funded the dividend and share repurchases: together this represented a return of capital to shareholder of about 30%
- operations, production by play:
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- Eagle Ford: 182,000 bpd (not specified whether bo or boe)
- Bakken: 82,000 bpd
- Delaware: 28,000 bopd
- third quarter production guidance: 1.215 to 1.255 million bpd
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- third party outage in Canada will continue, but will be offset by additional high margin growth from the Big 3 unconventional plays
- milestone: greater than 300,000 bpd from the Big 3
- production growth in the Big 3
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- company's goals: 22% growth or better, year-over-year
- actual in 1Q18: 20% -- company not happy; missed the 22% goal
- now: at 37% growth, year-over-over
- rigs:
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- Eagle Ford: 7 (up from 6)
- Delaware:2 (down from 3)
- Bakken: 2
- but look at that: with 2 rigs in the Bakken -- 82,000 bpd; 3 rigs in the Delaware, 28,000 bpd
- and it's going to get even better in the Bakken -- amazing side note
- completions: COP refers to them as "Vintages"
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- Vintage 4 in the Eagle Ford; have just started using Vintage 4 completion strategies
- now testing Vintage 5
- manufacturing stage in the Bakken and Eagle Ford; not yet there in the Permian
- Eagle Ford: lifting cost -- $2 / bbl and super-high margin -- that's why they are adding a rig ot the Eagle Ford and cutting back a rig in the Permian
- why are they keeping rigs in the Permian?
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- maintain leases there
- to "do" the Permian efficiently
- to continue to drill quad pads
- an analyst questioned whether the Permian was still core to COP; the answer, "yes"
- one less rig in the Permian will affection Permian production in 2019; not yet in 2018
- analyst: "you're generating a ton of cash beyond even your buyback plan"
- analyst: " wall of cash potentially over the next two or three years if oil prices stay at these levels
- why they don't "build DUCs" -- it's not efficient "we drill a well, we think yoiu should complete the well. These are great wells, and so that's an extra 9,000 there. And then the last 9,000 bpd or so that makes the 25,000 bpd (across the Eagle Ford), the last third, is really three.... plus 15,000 in the Eagle Ford and a plus 10,000 in the Bakken ...
- the Eagle Ford is really – the numbers are driven by new drills, but we are doing some recompletions, particularly in situations where we do what we call defensive refracs, where we have an area where we have a pressure depleted zone and we're drilling a new child well next to a parent well that sort of thing. But that's not a key driver in the volumes beat
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