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Title : Iran Exports -- July 8, 2018
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Iran Exports -- July 8, 2018

Over the next few months there will be lots of stories about Iran, crude oil production, crude oil exports, and sanctions.

Most articles, based on anecdotal historical experience, will talk about Iranian production. To some extent that's important, but more important is Iranian crude oil exports.

First, production: this is a great example of how one can "lie" with statistics. In this case there is no lying, but the graphic is quite, well, should we say "graphic":

It certainly looks like Iranian production has dropped off significantly. But look at the x-axis. The range is 3.8 million bopd to 3.92 million bopd -- not much of a range. In round numbers, Iran is producing about 4 million bopd.

Now, exports.

Quick! How have Iranian exports been doing?

Answer: Iranian exports have been setting records. Who would have guessed. From the St Louis Fed:

So, in round numbers, Iran exports about 2.5 million bopd. Most of it goes to India, I believe.

So, Iranian crude oil production:

• 4 million bopd

Iranian crude oil exports:

• 3.5 million bopd

Sanctions:

• a cut in exports, anywhere from:
• • 500,000 bopd
• to:
• • 2 million bopd

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