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Title : The US Is The Swing Producer -- I.E., The Shale Operators Are The World's Swing Producers -- July 22, 2018
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The US Is The Swing Producer -- I.E., The Shale Operators Are The World's Swing Producers -- July 22, 2018

For awhile there -- some months ago, one or two years ago -- there was a lot of debate whether the US was now the swing producer. The consensus at that time: Saudi Arabia remained the swing producer.

That has changed in the past 48 hours. Most everything below was previously posted in the last few days.

Exhibits A - D.

Exhibit A, July 21, 2018, from Rigzone:

U.S. production of crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) hit unprecedented levels in June 2018.

According to API, crude oil production hit 10.7 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in June and NGL production reached 4.2 MMbpd during the same period.

[The API] noted that domestic oil production has supplied all of the growth in global demand so far in 2018 and has helped to compensate for production losses among some OPEC member nations. [Memo to Art Berman, Jane Nielson.]

Exhibit B, July 21, 2018:

Saudi Arabia: hits "pause button" on higher oil output. For newbies, "everyone" talks about Saudi's production, not their exports. This is another article: emphasizes "production." Four points:

• I've never thought much of Saudi's ability to significantly increase production
• Saudi Arabia always increases production in summer to meet summer domestic consumption needs (a/c demand; electricity from oil in the Saudi Arabia)
• Prince Salman is now adding refinery capacity in his country which increased the country's domestic consumption 
• President Trump has asked Saudi Arabia to increase production, with a threat to release oil from the US SPR if the price of gasoline does not come down

Now, this:

Oil prices held steady on Thursday and in early trading on Friday after a top Saudi official said that oil production would remain flat in July compared to June and that Saudi Arabia does not want to oversupply the market. Previous comments suggested that Saudi Arabia would ramp up to 10.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in July, but instead the Saudis will keep output at 10.5 mb/d.

I find it interesting that at a point in time when Saudi Arabia should be increasing production, the country is actually cutting back. I think there's more to the story we are not hearing. Drones over Riyadh can't be comforting.

Exhibit C: EPD to build massive crude oil export terminal off-shore, Houston, TX.

Exhibit D: US sets milestone -- 11 million bopd crude oil production.

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