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Title : The Market, Energy, And The Political Page, T+69 -- August 8, 2018
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The Market, Energy, And The Political Page, T+69 -- August 8, 2018

Never mind: first we are told that Saudi production dropped in July, and then we are told Saudi reported record high production in July, and now this headline from oilprice: why Saudi oil production suddenly dropped. Apparently even Tsvetana is confused -- in her opening paragraph ... "as if oil market participants haven't had enough conflict market forces to digest ...."

Reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production surprisingly dropped in July by around 200,000 bpd from June further confounded the market and sent oil prices rising on Monday.

Last week, several surveys of OPEC’s crude oil production in July showed that the cartel is pumping at high rates, and Saudi Arabia is nearing its production record. But on Friday, Saudi sources and OPEC sources told news agencies that the Saudi oil production was not even close to record figures—and it actually dropped last month compared to June.

The Saudis pumped 10.29 million bpd in July, Saudi sources told S&P Global Platts on Friday. On the same day, two OPEC sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in July was 10.29 million bpd.

According to OPEC’s secondary sources, the ones the cartel uses to calculate quotas and compliance, Saudi Arabia’s oil production had jumped in June by 405,400 bpd compared to May, to reach 10.420 million bpd.

According to a Reuters survey from last week, Saudi Arabia’s production in July was 10.65 million bpd, but exports were close to June’s levels because the Saudis increased domestic use at power plants and refineries. OPEC’s crude oil production jumped by 340,000 bpd in July from June, as Saudi Arabia pumped near-record volumes, the S&P Global Platts survey showed on Friday.

The explanation at the link is as good as any, but does it matter?

But this is really a cool story. Confirms what we've been saying at the blog with regard to Saudi Arabia:

• production gets the headline; the real story is exports
• figures coming out of the Mideast are seldom reliable
• Saudi Arabia needs to increase production in the summer (air conditioning drives electricity demand)
• Vision 2030 will increase domestic consumption
• Iran sanctins? whatever
• when it comes to crude oil, only three producers are relevant: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Texas

Crockett's Them, Jan Hammer    Note: this 12-minute version last 5:50.

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