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Title : Weekly Petroleum Report -- EIA; WTI Plunges -- August 15, 2018
link : Weekly Petroleum Report -- EIA; WTI Plunges -- August 15, 2018

Weekly Petroleum Report -- EIA; WTI Plunges -- August 15, 2018

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• US crude oil inventories: increased by a whopping 6.8 million bbls
• WTI after the report: wow, down about 3.4%; falls $2.30; falls below the $66 support level; trading at $64.76; 
• bad news for US shale operators: it is interesting to note that rig count has fallen steadily in the Bakken for the past couple of weeks; indicator that terminals/refineries were "full"?
• really, really bad news for Saudi; needs $70 oil is what they say; in fact, they probably need $80 oil  
• US refinery operating capacity: 98.1% -- wow
• think about that: refineries are working at 98.1% capacity and yet, inventories rose by a whopping 6.8 million bbls
• there seems to be a disconnect between what the EIA is telling us about US production (EIA says US production is falling) and what the producers are seeing
• imports? up a huge amount -- up by over one million bbls -- total imports right at 9.0 million bbls -- I haven't seen an increase this big in quite some time; what gives?
• I tracked inventories for about a year when producers / Saudi Arabia said they were going to cut back on supply -- at that time, they started at 450 million bbls in US crude oil inventory and reduced it towards 400 million bbls; today it stands at 414.2 million bbls
• the old threshold was 350 million bbls (below that, bullish for oil traders; above that, bearish for oil traders
• I set the new number at 400 million bbls (below that, bullish for oil traders; above that, bearish for oil traders
• clearly, very, very bearish right now -- and it's the height of the driving season in the US
• if gasoline prices are not falling in your neighborhood, the refineries are making out like bandits
• production: magic numbers are about 10.5 and 5.0 respectively; this week, 10.2 million bbls for gasoline; 5.3 million bbls for distillate fuel

The gasoline demand graph will be posted later

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