For Newbies: The Predictability Of The Bakken; The Incredible Success Rate -- September 12, 2018

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Title : For Newbies: The Predictability Of The Bakken; The Incredible Success Rate -- September 12, 2018
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For Newbies: The Predictability Of The Bakken; The Incredible Success Rate -- September 12, 2018

I'm running through the 18XXX wells tonight, and I come across this one.

Wow, spud in 2010, and has production numbers like this.


Obviously a re-frack.

So, I look at the operator and the field. Absolutely predictable.


MRO re-fracking wells in the Bailey oil field.

Absolutely predictable.

Checking FracFocus. Yes, re-fracked 8/11/17 - 8/25/17.

I wonder, what kind of frack? A small to moderate one: 5.9 million gallons of water; 89% water by weight; 10% sand by weight. So, MRO gets another nice well with a small-to-moderate re-frack.

And something else.

They "never" screw up.

I almost never see a well that is not successfully re-fracked.

These guys are good. Not just MRO but all the operators in the Bakken.

Two miles down; two miles horizontal; hit a seam forty feet thick; know within inches where the well bore is; and successfully complete a well 99.999% of the time, it seems.

What's the production look like from the re-frack? Absolutely incredible:

Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare
BAKKEN 7-2018 31 13889 13763 15464 10750 8938 740
BAKKEN 6-2018 30 14242 14335 15279 10417 9285 50
BAKKEN 5-2018 31 16838 16832 9470 10652 7558 1839
BAKKEN 4-2018 24 15235 15196 13210 10041 2693 5591
BAKKEN 3-2018 25 15477 15521 18044 10768 8433 538
BAKKEN 2-2018 26 17356 17282 18611 11692 6384 3322
BAKKEN 1-2018 29 23820 23889 30412 17041 13573 759
BAKKEN 12-2017 22 20852 20816 24612 14321 8282 3699
BAKKEN 11-2017 25 16547 16593 18778 11933 8981 1047
BAKKEN 10-2017 31 28177 28108 34755 19296 13632 2465
BAKKEN 9-2017 16 16166 16203 142 11650 1128 8706
BAKKEN 8-2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

How does that compare to the original frack back in 2010?

BAKKEN 6-2011 30 3597 3755 1067 1843 1634 30
BAKKEN 5-2011 31 3355 3470 927 1642 1334 122
BAKKEN 4-2011 30 4730 4722 1432 1681 1359 142
BAKKEN 3-2011 29 3956 3720 1492 300 92 45
BAKKEN 2-2011 28 771 697 92 630 0 462
BAKKEN 1-2011 31 1707 1835 362 192 6 0
BAKKEN 12-2010 26 1445 1384 283 175 28 0
BAKKEN 11-2010 30 2042 2124 362 186 6 0
BAKKEN 10-2010 4 440 235 7 101 79 0
BAKKEN 9-2010 1 184 474 10 6 0 0
BAKKEN 8-2010 20 2589 2136 710 502 382 0

And, then this: there are literally tens of thousands of wells that were drilled between 2007 and 2012 that need to be re-fracked.

When folks talk about drilling the Bakken for the next 30 years, they are talking about new wells. The re-working, re-fracks, etc., will carry them another generation (or two).





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