US Gasoline Inventories Soar; Crude Oil Has A Substantial Draw -- But It Must Be The Gasoline Inventories That Drove A 2% Drop In The Price Of WTI -- September 6, 2018

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Title : US Gasoline Inventories Soar; Crude Oil Has A Substantial Draw -- But It Must Be The Gasoline Inventories That Drove A 2% Drop In The Price Of WTI -- September 6, 2018
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US Gasoline Inventories Soar; Crude Oil Has A Substantial Draw -- But It Must Be The Gasoline Inventories That Drove A 2% Drop In The Price Of WTI -- September 6, 2018

This is certainly weird and proves the rule: predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand.

WTI falls 2% even thought the EIA reports a substantial crude oil draw.
  • US crude oil inventory draw of 4.3 million bbls; inventories now stand at 401.5 million bbls; my threshold = 400 million bbls; we're practically there
  • refineries operating at only 96.6% capacity
  • gasoline production decreased a bit last month; now averaging less than 10 million bbls/day over the past four weeks
  • distillate fuel, on the other hand, is up about 3% over the past four weeks
  • but jet fuel is the big story (and a lot of CO2 emissions): jet fuel product supplied was up over 5% compared with same four-week period last year
  • but this is what is probably driving crude oil down in price today: total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million bbls last week -- an astounding 7% above the 5-year average for this time of the year -- with that inventory, one would think refineries will request less crude oil going forward, and already refinery are operating at less than 97% capacity after recently being near 99%
The gasoline demand graph will be posted later today.


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