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Title : Afternoon Note -- October 23, 2018
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Afternoon Note -- October 23, 2018

The Red Queen: Netflix. Link here. Netflix's new $2 billion in borrowing raises Wall Street eyebrows.The streamer's long-term debt has soared north of $10 billion, though Moody's says ratings and outlook remain stable. From the linked article:

Longtime skeptic Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities says the additional debt did not come as a surprise, considering Netflix's penchant for reporting negative cash flow. "It is precisely what we modeled," says Pachter. "So long as they burn cash, they will have to raise capital to fund their content spending."

Netflix is a victim of its own success. Its original content streamed on demand has proved so popular it has attracted many copycats, so Netflix must spend wildly to keep up with relative upstarts like Amazon, CBS All Access, HBO Now and Hulu.

It also must replenish what it is gradually losing from Warner Bros. and Disney, as each of them prepare to launch their own services next year that will directly compete with Netflix.

This means that if Netflix users want to stream episodes of Friends or the movie Coco, for example, they eventually won't have the option without signing up for yet-to-be named services from Warners and Disney, respectively.

Wow, if this doesn't sound like the Red Queen on her treadmill.

And I would argue that "video content" is entirely different than oil. "Video content" grows stale; loses value over time. Oil tends to never go out of favor; does not grow stale; and tends not to love value over time. So, we'll see. But Netflix? Certainly sounds like the Red Queen on her treadmill.

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Medicare For All

I would consider myself a fiscal conservative. I would like to see the "big numbers." I'm not convinced that the US can't afford "Medicare for all." There would have to be some tweaking but my hunch is that if Trump had time -- he doesn't -- he could get it done.

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ISO New England

Watch in real-time. Look at three things, in this order:

• the five-minute real-time LMP graph and five-minute real-time LMP list
• • the $250/MWH spike during the middle of the night
  • staying at $50/MWH much of the entire day (as of 1500
• the system load: forecast vs actual
• • middle of the night
  • 1500 - 2100 (current)
• fuel mix
• • renewables at 1900

https://ift.tt/2dZyQXu

Thus Article Afternoon Note -- October 23, 2018

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