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Title : World Series, If / Then, And Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken -- October 27, 2018
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World Series, If / Then, And Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken -- October 27, 2018

In The God Problem, Howard Bloom says computers have trouble with the "=" sign. Computers, he said, handle "if / then" instructions better.

I was thinking about the World Series while biking yesterday. Before the third game last night, Boston Red Sox led the series 2 - 0. The third game for the Dodges was the series. If they lost the third game they would have to win four games in a row; the Red Sox would simply have to win one game in three. Had the Dodgers lost last night, that would have been the series.

I am rooting for Boston but was glad to see the Dodgers win last night. Had Boston won, the series would have been over. It would have simply been (at most) four more games to play, knowing what the outcome would be.

Now, with the series at 2 - 1, tonight's game is not quite as important for the Dodgers, but it's almost as important (you will soon see why). Sure, if the Dodgers win, it evens the series, but for the Dodgers to take the series, it means they will have had to win four of five games. Not likely.

Some will argue that what is past is past, and with a win tonight, the Dodgers will even the series and both teams are back to "best of three games."

And that's where "if / then" comes in.

It would be interesting to program a computer in the following manner and see the results.

Load the entire World Series data from the very beginning in terms of the final outcomes.

Have the computer look at each championship at the end of game four. Program begins:

• if "2 -2", then "keep it." Delete all championship series in which the series was not 2 - 2 at the end of four games.

Then, of the series that are left:

• if "2 - 0" then "keep it." Delete all championship series in which the series was not 2 - 0 at the end of the first two games.

In the list that is generated, list all the teams that had the two wins.

Then, go back and list the winners of every championship series.

Figure the percentage of times the team that won the first two games won the series.

Simple, simple, simple, "if / then" program.

My hunch is that in this situation, the team that wins the first two games will win the series over 75% of the time.

Then it struck me. I bet someone has already done this on the internet. Let's see.

google: world series percent of times team won series after winning first two games

Very first hit: https://sabr.org/research/world-series-game-situation-winning-probabilities-how-often-do-teams-come-back-behind.

And the result? Wow, there it is. Secretly I had said to myself the probability was likely greater than 80% but I thought was "too crazy" so I posted 75% above. And there it is. The probability based on the situation as described: 80.4% probability that the Boston Red Sox will win this series.

So, even if the Dodgers win tonight and it's a best of three-game series, in fact, the Red Sox are greatly favored. Any team, historically, in this situation, has an 80% chance of winning the series.

One has to be careful: some folks are going to say that in fact I'm wrong; that at 2 - 1, the odds of the Red Sox winning the series is 68% -- see chart above. But the series was never 2 - 0. The series was 1 - 1; and then it went to 2 -1. Big difference.

By the way, by just winning the first game, Boston has a 64% chance (based on history) of winning the series. 

By the way, earlier I said had the Red Sox won last night, that would have been the end of the series. Why can I say that. Look at the chart. Not one team has ever come back from a 3 - 0 deficit to win the World Series. Not one. Zero percent chance. 

But back to the original exercise: what an incredibly easy "if / then" program.

I think I will this by Arianna tomorrow on our drive to her water polo tournament tomorrow -- it's an hour's drive. My hunch: there is a 99% chance she will fall asleep before we are outside Grapevine, TX, city limits based on past experience. LOL.

With regard to tonight's game, the article linked above ends with this:

So don’t spend too much on the champagne if your team is ahead 2–1 in the World Series since you only have a two-thirds chance of winning. But if you win the very important Game Four, you can put the bubbly on ice. It’s a good bet you’ll get to open it.

https://ift.tt/2dZyQXu

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