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Title : The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+35 -- December 10, 2018
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The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+35 -- December 10, 2018

WTI in the neighborhood: $1.79/gallon.

Gasoline demand. They must be reading the blog. For the past several months now, I've been talking about sluggish gasoline demand, which seems even more peculiar considering how inexpensive gasoline is. Now, Genscape over at oilprice is asking: is gasoline demand really slipping?

Nuclear energy. They must be reading the blog. For the past several days there has been a flurry of notes on the blog regarding nuclear energy. Over the weekend, from oilprice: are floating reactors the future of nuclear energy?

Renewable energy debate in the upper midwest (Minnesota/Wisconsin); from energynews. Some nice reporting -- lots of "in-between-the lines stuff that a lot of folks will probably miss.

Comment: a reader and I have been having an off-line e-mail discussion regarding

• current state of affairs in France (yellow vest revolution); 
• nuclear plants being decommissioned faster than expected in the US;
• decision for the government to not fund a nuclear waste processing plant already on the books
• persistence of the wind/solar energy lobby despite data;
• the early winter and record snowfall this autumn

In response to all that, my bottom line thoughts regarding all of this:

I honestly believe that movers and shakers in and the Deep State "conspired" back around 2011 to go all out with wind and solar. Had it not been for the shale revolution, things would have been a disaster by now. Think France.

It takes years to plan and executive closure of nuclear plants. "Current events" did not happen overnight. Decisions leading up to today's events were put in place years ago. I think the crescendo began in 1994 or thereabouts but reached a tipping point on March 11, 2011. On that date, the Deep State bureaucrats had the event they needed to go all out with renewable energy, no matter how much it cost.

Cost: by the way, the cost for US automobile drivers to meet the UN global warming mandate? $240-tax/gallon of gasoline. Over at The Daily Caller. The French can't even handle $8-gasoline.

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Gasoline Demand

From above --


Gasoline demand. Genscape over at oilprice is asking: is gasoline demand really slipping? What is Genscape saying? It begins:

Genscape data shows relatively flat growth in weekly year-on-year demand for September through November. On the other hand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Products Supplied data has shown year-on-year declines over the same period despite lower gasoline prices.

Our [Genscape] data shows U.S. total motor gasoline spot prices averaged $1.56/gal on November 28, down almost $0.70/gal from the high of $2.25/gal on October 2, pushing prices to the lowest level since June 30, 2017. Gasoline demand generally increases during prolonged periods of low prices, casting doubt on the demand declines. 

The writer of the article suggests, apparently, there is a significant difference between "relatively flat growth" and "year-on-year declines." Sounds like quibbling. Either way, it's disturbing, interesting, scary.

But one does learn something from the article. Again, unfortunately, it turns out EIA's data is based on a formula and not an exact measurement.

Genscape's bottom line:

Year-on-year U.S. gasoline demand was generally stronger between September and November and the record-setting differences between EIA weekly gasoline imports and exports appear to be skewing the EIA Product Supplied Weekly Gasoline data lower.

Gasoline imports and exports are part of the formula used to calculate EIA’s estimate of implied demand. Our Weekly Gasoline Demand Report and Prime Normalized data both show year-on-year increases supported by lower gasoline prices.

Genscape says their data shows that US gasoline demand is higher this year than last year. 

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