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Title : The Bakken In Graphs And Tables -- February 9, 2019
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The Bakken In Graphs And Tables -- February 9, 2019

Production in the Williston Basin by formation (link here):

YEAR	Middle Bakken	Three Forks
2017	361,131,625	1,713,089
2016	348,961,329	2,063,186
2015	397,684,040	3,198,603
2014	361,654,835	3,477,315
2013	284,554,268	1,631,693
2012	215,490,552	735,568
2011	126,178,063	563,459
2010	85,075,338	464,976

The graph:

Modified graph: it is impossible to see the Three Forks production in the graphic above, so I modified the graph by changing the middle Bakken production -- moving the decimal to the left by two spots. In other words, in the graph below, for it to be accurate, the middle Bakken production is 100x more than shown. The Three Forks data is unchanged.

Note: this was done quickly, not triple-checked and there are likely to be typographical and facutal errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

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Number of Wells Drilled In North Dakota, 2000 - 2017

Includes all wells, including salt water disposal wells and injection wells.  Link here.

Year	Number of Wells
2017	1,033
2016	756
2015	1,579
2014	2,350
2013	2,176
2012	1,995
2011	1,300
2010	862
2009	522
2008	581
2007	359
2006	317
2005	240
2004	223
2003	216
2002	164
2001	190
2000	138

The graphic:

Production:

And imagine: the Bakken is said to be "peanuts" in size compared to the Permian. Can you imagine?

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Idle Calculations

Using Back-of-the-Envelope

In round numbers, the Bakken/Three Forks first bench is producing 400 million bbls of oil each year.

Over twenty years that translates to 8 billion bbls of crude oil. Not boe but crude oil.

Some folks think that "they" will drill for 70 more years. Let's say 50 years.

Unfettered, it was assumed by some that the Bakken could produce 2.2 million bopd.

Let's say 1.5 million bopd, not much more than the current production rate.

x 365 days = 550 million bbls/year (which is in the current ballpark of 400 million bbls/year).

x 50 years = 27,750 million bbls or nearly 30 billion bbls.

The 2013 USGS survey:

• the mean: 7.4 billion bbls of recoverable oil
• the maximum estimate: 11.4 billion bbls of recoverable oil

Leigh Price's original paper: a reservoir of 500 billion bbls.

Ten percent primary recovery across the entire basin: 50 billion bbls.

The law of big numbers: everything seems to be in the same ball park.

Every one percent of 500 billion bbls = 5 billion bbls = about 275,000 bopd over the 50 years.

Currently producing about 1.3 million bopd, 275,000/1,300,000 = 20% increase in daily production.

http://bit.ly/2dZyQXu

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