Title : Update Regarding North Dakota DUCs -- June 29, 2018
link : Update Regarding North Dakota DUCs -- June 29, 2018
Update Regarding North Dakota DUCs -- June 29, 2018
Disclaimer: in a long note like this and with so many numbers, and no triple-checking and no NYT fact-checker, there will be factual and typographical errors.Update regarding DUCs.
Bottom lines:
- Bakken wells are most productive after initial frack (and possibly after subsequent fracks); completing one or two more DUCs in any given month can literally mean the difference between setting a new month-over-month production record
- there was a temporary increase in the number of DUCs during the Saudi Surge
- considering the price of oil for the past three months, I consider the number of DUCs (now over 900) more than expected
-
- I know there are folks who disagree me
- there are articles in the mainstream press suggesting ND is simply working down the backlog that occurred during the Saudi Surge; this may be the best article (a Bloomberg) article suggesting ND is "working down that backlog"
- the second and third graphs below do not support that argument (although that's in the eyes of the beholder)
- if ND was "working down the backlog" it does not explain the upward trend for the past three months
- anecdotally, recently there has been a long stretch in which none to few DUCs have been reported as completed
- most analysts I have come across, who are much, much more knowledgeable than I am, do not consider DUCs to be an issue worth spending much time on
Note: DUCs (drilled to depth but waiting for completion) and inactive well numbers (AB and IA) are all estimates, although DUCs should be a fairly accurate number. In addition, it depends on the exact day that the data is collected.
I will post graphics first to bring us up to 2016 or so. These graphics were taken from various sources using a google search.
First, these three graphics.
From January, 2014 -August, 2015:
- range: slightly below 600 to a high of just under a 1,000; trend was moving up through all of 2015; this was during the Saudi Surge; the trillion-dollar mistake Saudi made trying to break the US shale operators
From January, 2014 - October 16, an overlap with above data, but takes us to October, 2016:
- it makes no sense to me why EIA numbers are lower than NDIC numbers, when the former includes Montana and North Dakota, whereas the latter includes just North Dakota
- range: slightly below 600 on a couple of occasions in 2014, before the Saudi Surge; to a high of almost 1,100; trend was moving up through all of 2015; this was during the Saudi Surge; the trillion-dollar mistake Saudi made trying to break the US shale operators; after September, 2015, there was a slight but definite downward trend, to about 900 in August, 2016
From December, 2016 - April, 2017, an overlap with above data, but takes us to April, 2017:
- December, 2016: 790
- April, 2017: 821
From most recent data, April, 2018 - May, 2017, most recent to oldest, which brings us up to date:
- taken from my posts on the blog. In May, 2017, I started posting DUCs and inactive wells on a regular basis. It's too time consuming to go back and fill in the few months in which I did not post data so I'm not going to fill in that bit of missing data. I think the existing data tells the story.
- data below: month/year, DUCs, inactive wells. All data below, including the up/down change were taken directly from the NDIC Director's Cuts
- range:
-
- an outlier, March, 2017: 689
- otherwise, a low of 799 in February, 2017
- a high of 942 in the most recent month, April, 2018
- not graphed, but the trend for the past three months has been up
-
- up 48 in February, 2018, 901
- up 15 in March, 2018, 916
- up 26 in April, 2018, 942
- in data presented, we have never gone above 1,700 inactive wells
- number of inactive wells in the past three months are among the highest numbers in the data presented
April, 2018: 942, up 26 from previous report
inactive: 1,521, down 132
March, 2018: 916, up 15
inactive: 1,653, down 1
February, 2018: 901, up 48
inactive: 1,654, down 100
January, 2018: 853, down 24
inactive: 1,554, up 85
December, 2017: 877, down 6
inactive: 1,469, down 23
November, 2017:
October, 2017:
September, 2017: 853, down 10
inactive: 1,444, down 54
August, 2017: 863, down 26
inactive: 1,498, up 20
July, 2017: 889, up 34
inactive: 1,478
June, 2017: 865, up 35
inactive: 1,458, down 53
May, 2017: 830, unchanged
inactive: 1,511, up 45
April, 2017: 830, up 141
inactive, 1,466, up 167
March, 2017: 689, down 110
inactive: 1,299, down 312 (need to correct typo at that post)
February, 2017: 799, down 3
inactive: 1,611, down 67
January, 2017: 802, down 5
inactive: 1,678, up 105
December, 2017: 807, down 32
November, 2017: 839, down 21
inactive: 1,519, up 16
October, 2017: 860, unchanged
inactive: 1,500 (unchanged (AB and IA)
September, 2017:
August, 2017: 888, down 24
inactive: 1,514, up 44
July, 2017: 912, up 25
inactive: 1,486, down 98
June, 2017: 887
inactive: 1,584
May, 2017: 931, up 39
inactive: 1,584, down 6
Disclaimer: in a long note like this and with so many numbers, and no triple-checking and no NYT fact-checker, there will be factual and typographical errors.
Thus Article Update Regarding North Dakota DUCs -- June 29, 2018
That's an article Update Regarding North Dakota DUCs -- June 29, 2018 This time, hopefully can give benefits to all of you. well, see you in posting other articles.
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